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Election · 5 November 2024

2024 US Presidential Election

5 November 2024

Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris to win a second, non-consecutive term as US President, alongside Republican control of both chambers of Congress. The result became clear more quickly than many had expected on election night.

Markets reacted immediately with what was widely dubbed the "Trump trade": the US dollar strengthened broadly against major currencies including the pound, on expectations of higher tariffs, tax cuts, and generally more inflationary fiscal policy. US equity markets, particularly smaller domestic-focused companies, rallied strongly in the days after. US government bond yields rose as markets priced in both stronger growth expectations and concerns about a larger federal deficit.

GBP/USD, one month either side of the election

1.3171.2981.2791.2601.2412024-10-042024-10-282024-11-182024-12-102025-01-03
Widely reported at the time by Reuters, the Financial Times, and the Associated Press. Exchange rate data: European Central Bank via Frankfurter.